普华甜菊糖
PUHUA STEVIA
PUHUA STEVIA
release time：2020-06-08 2809People browsing
February 14,2012- -According to the China Securities Journal reported on February 14, on February 8, the market has been a long-rumored white sugar purchase and storage policy has finally settled.After the policy is clear, the future fluctuation range of white sugar will gradually become clear.
"Compact and loose"
Combining the global sugar supply and demand forecast for this squeeze season, we think it will be in a state of oversupply.In its latest production forecast, Guangxi Sugar Network believes that the global sugar supply surplus is 6.1 million tons this year.In general, the oversupply of this season should be a high probability event.But the USDA report showed that global sugar stocks fell by 11.37 million tons from 39.78 million tons in 2008 / 2009 to 28.41 million tons in 2010 / 2011; and the inventory consumption ratio fell from 26.13% in 2008 / 2009 to 16.71% in 2010 / 2011.Assuming that the output estimate of Guangxi sugar network is accurate, the inventory consumption ratio this year is roughly 20.46%, and lower than the average inventory consumption ratio since 2000 is 24.13%.As a result, the global sugar supply and demand this year is "tight and loose", that is, this year's oversupply and a sharp decline in inventory in recent years have led to the overall tight supply and demand.
The 7,000 yuan is not a pressure
There are two incidents related to 7,000. First, in October 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission required two sugar companies in Guangxi to sell 170,000 tons of white granulated sugar at a price of no more than 7,000 yuan / ton before October 15. Failure to implement the price will be punished according to law.Then the NDRC explained the reason for the 7000 yuan: firstly, the production cost of the enterprise; secondly, the spot market price of granulated sugar; third, the sugar sales price determined with the current sugar purchase price in Guangxi; fourth, the average price of national sugar storage on September 16,2011 was 7022 Yuan / ton.
Second, 7,000 yuan / ton is the sugarcane acquisition linkage price set by Guangxi, Yunnan, Guangdong and other major sugarcane provinces in China.The sugarcane purchase linkage price is set by the local governments, but obviously the local governments and the local development and Reform commissions will definitely communicate with the National Development and Reform Commission when setting the sugarcane purchase linkage price.Therefore, in fact, the National Development and Reform Commission agrees with the sugar price of 7000 yuan / ton, but unlike the market belief that the spot price of 7000 yuan / ton is too high, which needs to be regulated.
6550 is not a support
6550 YUAN / ton is a benchmark price for the white sugar purchase and storage. Each local warehouse forms the highest price to the warehouse according to a certain freight premium. The bidding method is the price and time priority transaction. Obviously, such a way of purchase and storage is not what the sugar factory expects. If the country can adopt the lowest price of unlimited purchase according to the cotton purchase and storage method, then the price of white sugar can be limited to more than 6,550 yuan / ton. However, under the current specific way of sugar purchase and storage, if the delivery and storage enterprises form competition, then there may be a low price transaction in some local warehouses, and after deducting the transportation costs, the price converted into the production area will be less than 6550 yuan / ton. If the exchange and storage enterprises form effective alliances and collude with the exchange and storage price, then it can form a win-win situation. It is out of such concern that the Ministry of Commerce has added penalties for violations such as price collusion in the middle of the purchase and storage rules. At the same time, 1 million tons of harvest reserves on supply and demand is also relatively limited. After analyzing these perspectives, it can be believed that the central government is unwilling to purchase white sugar at the price of 6,550 yuan / ton, indicating that the central government does not think that the survival of sugar enterprises at this price is difficult, which will affect the white sugar industry chain in producing areas. Such a purchase and storage plan is just a compromise in the game between central and local governments and sugar factories. The central government has taken a step back on the price of the purchase and storage prices, while the sugar mills and the local governments in Guangxi have made concessions on the way of purchasing and storage prices. Thus, it can be inferred that 6,550 yuan / ton is not an effective price support.
White sugar is wide
In the early stage, there is a popular view in the market that the spot price is higher than 7000 yuan / ton will trigger government regulation, and the purchase and storage price will form an effective support for the spot price of white sugar. This year, the fluctuation of the white sugar price will be greatly reduced, limited to 6550 yuan / ton to 7000 yuan / ton, such a relatively narrow space. After the above analysis, the author believes that such concerns are illogical aspects. The future trend of white sugar prices should pay more attention to the actual situation of supply and demand. Combined with the "tight and loose" supply and demand of sugar, and the author's general estimate of the production cost of sugar, we believe that the fluctuation range of sugar this year may be 6000 yuan.
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